Our Big Bets for 2025

Our Big Bets for 2025

Last Thursday, we hosted our flagship F&B Summit for sustainability professionals. I wanted to share a snippet of what I discussed with that audience - my 2024 industry reflections and 2025 predictions.

2024 Reflections

• Supply chain data acquisition is shifting to PCFs. Calculating your Scope 3 emissions based on spend and enriching this with supplier Corporate Footprint data (with economic allocation) is a trend we're leaving behind in 2024. As companies move to activity and volume based Scope 3 measurement, we’re now seeing them accelerate requests for Product Carbon Footprints (PCFs) from their suppliers to shift their Scope 3 emissions calculation toward primary data.
• LCA tooling in giving way under pressure. LCA tooling is struggling to keep pace. The dominant approaches were 1) LCAs outsourced to research shops, which came back as academic documents with one-off insight but limited ongoing utility; 2) Spreadsheets put together with in-house macros, built on high level Environmental Factors but insufficient granularity. Both these approaches have struggled to scale to match PCF demand.
• Standardisation has been tough, so companies have stayed flexible. Regulation and guidance always seems to be "one more year away," so many companies have optimised for flexibility. They’ve set up data systems that can generate output in different formats, and have focused on data input quality while they await standardisation on methodologies. This might be the right move, because industry common practice may shape standards faster than consensus.

2025 Bets

• Sustainability ambition will regress to the mean. The average bar for sustainability ambition will rise, but innovation will become less bold. This means that the most innovative companies will pull back their level of ambition (as per their stated strategies), while more industry laggards will transition to fast followers (i.e., accelerate). Overall, this is probably a good thing as it means more companies move into the zone of pragmatic, positive action.
• Packaging will be the most proactive sustainability collaborator for brands. Consumers strongly associate the sustainability of a product with its packaging. In a recent Altruistiq study, packaging concerns ranked highest when consumers were asked, “What makes you perceive a brand as unsustainable?” Packaging is both responding to pressure from its customers and recognising the business opportunity that circularity presents. I predict we will see at least one clear sustainable leader per packaging substrate.

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• PCF Generation will Expand 10x Faster than PCF Exchange. Our friends at PACT (Partnership for Carbon Transparency) estimate that around 4.5K PCFs have been exchanged between organisations over the past year. Since May, we’ve seen a nearly 300% increase in PCFs generated on the Altruistiq Platform, bringing the total to ~380K. This clearly shows that while the number of PCFs generated has exploded, the number shared has seen more modest growth. PCFs will first be used for eco-design and procurement decisions before they find their way into on-pack claims.

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Written by Saif Hameed

The Hidden Costs of Corporate Buy-in

The first panel of last week’s State of Sustainability Summit explored the inner workings of a sustainability function, covering everything from stakeholder buy-in to securing budgets and the necessary tools to support the function. We’ve compiled the best insights from our expert panellists.

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Saif Hameed, Euan Dodds (Diageo), Maria Carvalho (NatWest), and Pedro Lafargue (OFI).

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• Reactionary Data vs. Strategic Storytelling: In the rush for visibility, companies often scramble to collect whatever data they can—what we call "reactionary data collection." But just having data doesn’t mean you have a story. And without a story, you don’t have a strategy. Rather than piecing together scattered figures, companies must focus on building a narrative that connects emissions, costs, and actionable interventions. What do you want to use this data for?
• Carbon Pricing: Not Just a Number, a Financial Compass: Where should you start with carbon pricing? Identify your emissions categories and the interventions needed, then ask vendors for quotes. Don’t use voluntary carbon market prices as your benchmark—this is like using Monopoly money to settle your mortgage. Carbon pricing should be tailored to your projects, industry, and geography. It’s not just an abstract number but a financial tool to guide investment, justify sustainability initiatives, and drive meaningful change.
• The Power of Farmer Clusters and Regional Networks: One of the smartest moves companies can make is to create clusters of suppliers or farmers who share risk and reward. Think of this as building resilience through mini-ecosystems. When a group of farmers pools resources, it reduces costs, enhances scalability, and promotes economic stability. It also simplifies supply chain management.
• Incentivising Sustainable Practices Through Contracts: An often overlooked area is contract clauses. Why not incentivize suppliers to reduce emissions by linking it to pricing? Instead of compensating for business as usual, offer financial rewards for hitting sustainability targets. Contribution claims—such as “I financed this farmer X amount to implement greener practices”—are more meaningful than vague compensation claims. This shifts the narrative from “paying for damage” to “investing in progress.”
• Turning Corporate Goals Into Functional Targets: Many corporate sustainability goals look good on paper, but translating them into functional targets can be challenging. If your goal is net-zero emissions, you need clear metrics for each team, department, and supplier. It’s not enough to say “reduce emissions”; you need to ask, “Do we have the right data and evidence to monitor and reward internal progress?” More importantly, are these rewards aligned with our carbon targets?

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Written by Frankie Musson

Other News

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• 🩺🦟 Medical schools lean to climate crisis curriculum (Guardian): The new European Network on Climate & Health Education will train future doctors on sustainable healthcare practises and climate-linked diseases like heatstroke, dengue, and malaria. The climate crisis sees antimicrobial resistance exacerbated and insect territories expand “aided by changes in temperature and rainfall patterns”.
• 🪰🐟🇰🇪 Maggots helping food waste and overfishing (Dialogue Earth): Black soldier fly larvae are being used to convert food waste into sustainable fish feed, reducing pressure on wild fish stocks. Project Mila in Mombasa, Kenya collects waste to feed larvae, whose protein-rich bodies support fish farming, while their excrement helps fertilize crops and restore mangroves. This approach aims to promote eco-friendly aquaculture and lessen environmental impact.
• 🇧🇷🌲 Indigenous groups push for carbon credit consultation (Reuters): Indigenous organizations in Para, Brazil, claim they were not consulted before the state signed a $180 million deal with companies like Amazon to sell carbon credits for Amazon rainforest conservation through the LEAF Coalition. Despite claims by Para’s governor of Indigenous involvement, 38 groups denounced the exclusion, emphasizing that their territories are not for sale and demanding consultation.
• 👚🇪🇸 Spain's fashion retailers clothes collection trial (Reuters): Major brands like Inditex, H&M, and Primark will launch a pilot program in April 2025 to collect discarded clothing, ahead of EU regulations requiring textile waste separation by 2026. The "Re-viste" project aims to divert textiles from landfills by setting up collection points across Spain. Currently, only 12% of used clothes are collected separately, with most ending up in landfills.